CF Industries
Sector unknown·CF · USA (SEC 10-K)·Fiscal year to 31/12/2025
Our core product is anhydrous ammonia (ammonia), which contains 82% nitrogen and 18% hydrogen. Products derived from ammonia that are most often used as nitrogen fertilizers include granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN) and ammonium nitrate (AN).
Exposure profile
Derived from what the company itself writes. Empty directions mean the report doesn't mention themes of that type.
In their own words
Grouped by theme, from the management review in the annual report. A · The company itself is a verbatim quote, B · From the report is without a verified quote.
Natural gas
Raw materials and inputs
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“Our manufacturing facilities have access to abundant, competitively-priced natural gas through a reliable network of pipelines that are connected to major natural gas trading hubs.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“More stringent GHG regulations, if they are enacted, may have a significant impact on us, because our production facilities emit GHGs such as CO2 and nitrous oxide and because natural gas, a fossil fuel that releases methane when extracted from the earth and when transported, is a primary raw material used in our nitrogen production process. Regulation of GHGs may require us to make changes in our operating activities that could increase our operating costs, reduce our efficiency, limit our output, require us to make capital improvements to our facilities, increase our costs for, or limit the availability of, energy, raw materials or transportation, or otherwise materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverMixed impact: mixed
“Supply of nitrogen products is affected primarily by available production capacity and operating rates, raw material costs and availability, energy prices, government policies and global trade.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“The price of natural gas in North America has historically been volatile. The price has declined on average due in part to the development of significant natural gas reserves, including shale gas, and the rapid improvement in shale gas extraction techniques, such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“In recent years, the cost of North American natural gas for the production of nitrogen fertilizers has been significantly lower than the cost of natural gas in other parts of the world where the industry’s marginal nitrogen producers are located.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverMixed impact: mixed
“Certain of our operating facilities are located near natural gas hubs that have experienced increased natural gas development and have favorable price differences as compared to other North American hubs. Favorable price differences in certain regions may dissipate over time due to increases in natural gas pipeline or storage capacity in those regions.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Weather conditions or, in certain cases, weather forecasts, can also disrupt our operations and can affect the price of natural gas, the principal raw material used to make our nitrogen products. Colder and/or longer than normal winters and warmer than normal summers increase the demand for natural gas for residential and industrial use and for power generation, which can increase the cost and/or decrease the availability of natural gas. In addition, adverse weather events, such as extreme cold temperatures, storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, or floods, not only can cause loss of power or other impacts to our facilities or damage to or delays in logistics capabilities disrupting our operations, but also can impact the supply of natural gas and utilities and cause prices to rise.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
InputNegative impact: weakens
“Decarbonizing our existing network At our Donaldsonville and Yazoo City complexes, our decarbonization projects are leveraging carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to enable us to convert a portion of our existing ammonia production to low-carbon ammonia production. CCS requires the construction of carbon dioxide (CO2) dehydration and compression units to enable process CO2 captured from the ammonia production process to be transported and sequestered, which prevents approximately 60% of the CO2 generated by ammonia production from being emitted to the atmosphere.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
InputNegative impact: weakens
“Nitrogen Product Raw Materials Natural gas is the principal raw material and primary fuel source used in the ammonia production process at our nitrogen manufacturing facilities. In 2025, natural gas accounted for approximately 34% of our total production costs.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
InputNegative impact: weakens
“This facility has the capacity to produce 720,000 tons of ammonia annually from natural gas supplied under a contract with The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (NGC). From time to time, the PLNL joint venture has experienced curtailments in the supply of natural gas from NGC, which has reduced the ammonia production at PLNL.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
InputNegative impact: weakens
“Due to the substantial increase in the cost of natural gas in the United Kingdom, in 2022, we closed the Ince facility, and in 2023, we ceased operations of the ammonia plant at the Billingham facility, which was idled in September 2022. Since that time, we have imported ammonia for upgrade into AN and other nitrogen products at the Billingham facility.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
InputNegative impact: weakens
“Natural gas, a fossil fuel, is a primary raw material used in our nitrogen production process.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
InputNegative impact: weakens
“We use raw materials, primarily natural gas, and utilities, such as electricity, in the manufacture of our nitrogen products. We purchase raw materials and utilities from third party suppliers.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
InputNegative impact: weakens
“Commodity Prices Our gross margin, cash flows and estimates of future cash flows related to nitrogen-based products are sensitive not only to selling prices of our products, but also to changes in market prices of natural gas and other raw materials. A $1.00 per MMBtu change in the price of natural gas would change the cost to produce a ton of ammonia, granular urea, UAN (assuming a 32% nitrogen content) and AN by approximately $32, $22, $14 and $16, respectively. Natural gas is the largest and most volatile component of the manufacturing cost for nitrogen-based products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
StrategyPositive impact: strengthens
“From time to time, we utilize natural gas derivatives to hedge our financial exposure to the price volatility of natural gas, the principal raw material we use in the production of nitrogen-based products. We may use natural gas futures, swaps and option contracts traded in over-the-counter markets or on exchanges.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
EU climate and energy policy
Regulation
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“In addition, our low-carbon products are expected to be used for existing and new applications, such as power generation and steel production in Japan, and to help customers reduce the economic impact of European regulations on the price of carbon.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“In 2025, we completed our first sales of low-carbon ammonia at a premium to traditional ammonia consumers in Europe and Africa as they began to establish a low-carbon ammonia supply chain. We expect continued demand growth for low-carbon ammonia and upgraded products into Europe as customers seek to reduce the additional costs imposed by the European Union’s regulations, including the carbon border adjustment mechanism in respect of GHG emissions associated with the production of imported ammonia and upgraded products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“We are subject to GHG regulations in Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom. Beginning on January 1, 2026, importers of nitrogen fertilizer products into the European Union (EU) became subject to the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) costs based on the product’s production GHGs, subject to certain thresholds, with certain EU member state officials currently advocating for a suspension of CBAM’s application to fertilizers.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverMixed impact: mixed
“Governmental policies and changes thereto, including farm and biofuel subsidies, commodity support programs and tariffs, environmental and greenhouse gas (GHG) policies, as well as the prices of fertilizer products, may also directly or indirectly influence the number of acres planted, the mix of crops planted and the use of fertilizers for particular agricultural applications.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Conversely, while the current Renewable Fuel Standard encourages continued high levels of corn-based ethanol production, various interested parties have called to eliminate or reduce the renewable fuel mandate, or to eliminate or reduce corn-based ethanol as part of such mandate.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“In addition, Canada has announced a target of reducing emissions from fertilizers by 30% below 2020 levels by 2030 and is supporting implementation through improved nitrogen management and optimizing fertilizer use.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“More stringent GHG regulations, if enacted, are likely to have a significant impact on us, because our production facilities emit GHGs such as CO2 and nitrous oxide and because natural gas is the primary raw material used in our production process. GHG regulations may require us to make changes in our operating activities that would increase operating costs, reduce efficiency, limit output, require capital improvements to our facilities, increase costs for or limit the availability of energy, raw materials or transportation, or otherwise materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 expanded production tax credits for carbon sequestration and introduced clean hydrogen production tax credits. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in July 2025, further modified carbon sequestration tax credits and limited the duration of the clean hydrogen production tax credits. Further changes to the underlying legislation or the final guidance issued may impact our ability to receive anticipated tax credits for our low-carbon ammonia projects.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Environmental and Regulatory Risks We are subject to numerous environmental, health and safety laws, regulations and permitting requirements, as well as potential environmental liabilities, which may require us to make substantial expenditures or modify business plans. We are subject to numerous environmental, health and safety laws and regulations in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Trinidad and other locations, including laws and regulations relating to the generation, handling and disposal of hazardous substances and wastes; the introduction of new chemicals or substances into a market; the cleanup of hazardous substance releases; the discharge of regulated substances to land, air or water; and the demolition and cleanup of plant sites upon permanent closure.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“We may be subject to more stringent enforcement of existing or new environmental, health and safety laws in the future. Future environmental, health and safety laws and regulations or reinterpretation of or changes to current laws and regulations may require us to make substantial expenditures or modify business plans.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
StrategyPositive impact: strengthens
“Demand for low-carbon ammonia and other nitrogen fertilizers is also incentivized by the availability of environmental attribute credit and incentive programs, including tax credits. There is no assurance that programs providing credits and incentives for production of environmental attributes and markets for them will continue to be available or exist.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains out: this strengthens Circular economy and recycling, strengthens Energy efficiency
Utilities
End markets
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“New growth opportunities include power generation and marine shipping, which are hard-to-abate industries for which low-carbon ammonia offers a potential path to significantly lower carbon footprints as it does not contain or emit carbon when combusted.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“In 2025, our expectation that there is developing demand for low-carbon ammonia for new applications of our products was confirmed through our joint venture partners, JERA and Mitsui. They have committed low-carbon ammonia volumes from the Blue Point joint venture for power generation and steel production, among other uses, which represent new applications for our products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Market
“In addition, our low-carbon products are expected to be used for existing and new applications, such as power generation and steel production in Japan, and to help customers reduce the economic impact of European regulations on the price of carbon.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Agriculture and food production
End markets
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“A majority of the ammonia and ammonia-derived products we manufacture are used as fertilizer, as the nitrogen content provides energy essential for crop growth. Other important uses of our products include emissions control.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Market
“Our core product is anhydrous ammonia (ammonia), which contains 82% nitrogen and 18% hydrogen. Products derived from ammonia that are most often used as nitrogen fertilizers include granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN) and ammonium nitrate (AN).”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains in: Grain and agricultural commodities mixed effect, Climate change and extreme weather weakens, Grocery retail and private label weakens
Steel
Raw materials and inputs
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“In 2025, our expectation that there is developing demand for low-carbon ammonia for new applications of our products was confirmed through our joint venture partners, JERA and Mitsui. They have committed low-carbon ammonia volumes from the Blue Point joint venture for power generation and steel production, among other uses, which represent new applications for our products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Market
“In addition, our low-carbon products are expected to be used for existing and new applications, such as power generation and steel production in Japan, and to help customers reduce the economic impact of European regulations on the price of carbon.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains in: Wind power strengthens
Hydrogen and Power-to-X
Technology
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“We believe the demand for low-carbon ammonia could take several years to materialize and then ten or more years to fully develop and mature, and we cannot be certain that this demand or the demand for low-carbon hydrogen will grow to the size or at the rate we expect or at all. In 2025, hydrogen was estimated to account for approximately 2% of global energy needs.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Recently, many proposed low-carbon ammonia projects have been announced or considered, and future hydrogen, energy, or environmental/carbon policies may support development of additional nitrogen production outside North America. In the event that the growth in supply of low-carbon ammonia and low-carbon hydrogen exceeds the growth in demand for those products, the resulting unfavorable supply and demand balance could lead to lower selling prices than we expect for many of our products, which could negatively affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Failure of our and our business partners’ technologies to work as predicted, or unintended consequences of new designs or uses, could lead to cost overruns, project delays, financial penalties, or damage to our reputation. We may face difficulties marketing products produced using new technologies including, but not limited to, low-carbon ammonia, which may adversely impact our sales and financial results.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
StrategyPositive impact: strengthens
“The Blue Point joint venture is expected to construct an autothermal reforming (ATR) ammonia production facility with a CO2 dehydration and compression unit to prepare captured CO2 for transportation and sequestration. Engineering, equipment procurement and pre-construction activities at our Blue Point complex began in the second quarter of 2025. Construction of the ammonia production facility is expected to begin in 2026, with low-carbon ammonia production expected to begin in 2029.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
StrategyPositive impact: strengthens
“Additional nitrogen production capacity has come online in the past 12 months and is expected to continue to do so globally over the next 12 months. In addition, we and other companies have announced plans to build new facilities for low-carbon ammonia, such as our ongoing development of a low-carbon ammonia production facility at our Blue Point complex in Louisiana.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
StrategyPositive impact: strengthens
“Further to our clean energy strategy, we recently launched low-carbon ammonia production at our Donaldsonville complex and have ongoing investments in our Yazoo City and Blue Point complexes. This production and these investments are dependent on our third-party providers, including their CO2 pipelines and sequestration wells, for the transport and permanent sequestration of CO2.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Market
“Strategic Risks The market for low-carbon ammonia may be slow to develop, may not develop to the size expected or may not develop at all. Moreover, we may not be successful in the development and implementation of our low-carbon ammonia projects in a timely or economic manner, or at all, due to a number of factors, many of which are beyond our control. We have made and expect to continue to make significant investments in our clean energy strategy (including our low-carbon ammonia projects) that may not create any or our expected value of such investments if demand for low-carbon ammonia does not develop and mature to the size and at the rate we expect.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Artificial intelligence
Technology
StrategyPositive impact: strengthens
“We may implement technologies, which are beyond our experience base, in the ammonia production process at designs and at scales beyond what has been successfully done previously. Adapting these technologies for new applications can create nontraditional performance risks to our operations. For example, we are developing at our Blue Point complex a low-carbon ammonia plant using autothermal reforming (ATR) with CCS.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains out: this strengthens Data centres, strengthens Semiconductors and electronic components, strengthens Semiconductor industry
Defence industry
End markets
Market
“AN is also used extensively by the commercial explosives industry as a component of explosives.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains in: Defence budgets strengthens
Industrial manufacturing
End markets
Market
“Products derived from ammonia that are sold primarily to industrial customers include diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
M&A and consolidation
Macro
StrategyPositive impact: strengthens
“For example, in 2025, we entered into a joint venture with two Japanese partners to build a greenfield plant to produce low-carbon ammonia. This joint venture and other similar arrangements we may enter into may involve significant risks and uncertainties, including the ability of us and our strategic partners to cooperate, us and our strategic partners having inconsistent interests or goals, ours and our partners ability to realize tax, financial and other programs incentivizing low-carbon production, and the potential that our strategic partners may be unable or unwilling to meet their financial or other obligations to the joint venture, which may negatively impact the expected benefits of the joint venture and cause us to incur additional expense or suffer reputational damage.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Retail
End markets
Market
“Our principal customers are cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers and industrial users.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains in: Consumer spending strengthens
SMEs
End markets
Market
“Our principal customers are cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers and industrial users.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Grain and agricultural commodities
Raw materials and inputs
DriverMixed impact: mixed
“Market Risks Our industry is cyclical, and our operating results are highly dependent upon and fluctuate based upon changes in supply and demand of nitrogen products, and our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows tend to be negatively affected in periods of industry oversupply. Selling prices for our products, which are global commodities or derived from global commodities, have fluctuated in response to periodic changes in supply and demand conditions.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverMixed impact: mixed
“Supply of nitrogen products is affected primarily by available production capacity and operating rates, raw material costs and availability, energy prices, government policies and global trade.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“Demand for nitrogen products is affected by planted acreage, crop selection and fertilizer application rates, driven by population changes, economic growth, changes in dietary habits and non-food use of crops, such as production of ethanol and other biofuels. Demand also includes industrial uses of nitrogen, for example, chemical manufacturing and emissions reductants such as diesel exhaust fluid (DEF).”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“During periods of industry oversupply, our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows tend to be affected negatively due to a decline in the price at which we sell our products. As a result, we may experience reduced profit margins, write-downs in the value of our inventory and temporary or permanent curtailments of production.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“We are subject to intense price competition from other producers. The nitrogen products that we produce are global commodities or are derived from global commodities, with little or no product differentiation.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“For example, ethanol production in the United States contributes significantly to corn demand, representing approximately 35% of total U.S. corn demand, and is impacted by federal legislation mandating renewable fuels use. Mandated ethanol production increases have increased the amount of corn grown in the United States and related fertilizer usage.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Lower gasoline prices and fewer aggregate miles, driven by increased automobile fuel efficiency and the expansion of electric vehicle use, may put pressure on ethanol prices that could result in reduced profitability and lower production for the ethanol industry. This could have an adverse effect on corn-based ethanol production, planted corn acreage and fertilizer demand.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Additionally, government incentives and other policies and recent increased investment in renewable biodiesel and associated soybean crush capacity may drive higher soybean oil prices, resulting in more planted acres allocated to soybeans and other oil crops and displacing some acreage traditionally planted to more nitrogen intensive crops such as grains and cotton.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverMixed impact: mixed
“We believe the ability to purchase products on a forward basis is more appealing to our customers during periods of generally increasing prices for nitrogen fertilizers. Our customers may be less willing or even unwilling to purchase products on a forward basis during periods of generally decreasing or stable prices or when there is an expectation of lower prices in the future.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains out: this strengthens Beer and beverages, mixed effect Agriculture and food production
Carbon tax and ETS prices
Regulation
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“Traditional applications include agriculture, where low-carbon nitrogen products can be used to reduce the carbon footprint of food production and the life cycle carbon intensity of ethanol production.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“In 2025, we completed our first sales of low-carbon ammonia at a premium to traditional ammonia consumers in Europe and Africa as they began to establish a low-carbon ammonia supply chain. We expect continued demand growth for low-carbon ammonia and upgraded products into Europe as customers seek to reduce the additional costs imposed by the European Union’s regulations, including the carbon border adjustment mechanism in respect of GHG emissions associated with the production of imported ammonia and upgraded products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“We are subject to GHG regulations in Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom. Beginning on January 1, 2026, importers of nitrogen fertilizer products into the European Union (EU) became subject to the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) costs based on the product’s production GHGs, subject to certain thresholds, with certain EU member state officials currently advocating for a suspension of CBAM’s application to fertilizers.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“More stringent GHG regulations, if they are enacted, may have a significant impact on us, because our production facilities emit GHGs such as CO2 and nitrous oxide and because natural gas, a fossil fuel that releases methane when extracted from the earth and when transported, is a primary raw material used in our nitrogen production process. Regulation of GHGs may require us to make changes in our operating activities that could increase our operating costs, reduce our efficiency, limit our output, require us to make capital improvements to our facilities, increase our costs for, or limit the availability of, energy, raw materials or transportation, or otherwise materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“In addition, to the extent that GHG restrictions are not imposed in countries where our competitors operate or are less stringent than regulations that are or may be imposed in the United States, Canada or the United Kingdom, our competitors may have cost or other competitive advantages over us.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“The production of low-carbon ammonia depends to a large extent upon the ability of third parties to develop Class VI carbon sequestration wells and CO2 transportation pipelines, which currently do not exist at large scale and are subject to a permitting process and operational risks, which may result in delays, impact viability in some or all situations, or create long-term liabilities. For example in October 2025, Louisiana’s government established new permitting criteria and policy guidance for the state’s Class VI underground injection control program for carbon sequestration, including emphasizing public engagement, economic development, and local community investment, and imposed an indefinite moratorium on all new applications for Class VI underground injection wells while the state works through pending applications.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“The enactment of, or increases in, carbon taxes or value added taxes, or other changes in the application of existing taxes, in markets in which we are currently active, or may be active in the future, or on specific products that we sell or with which our products compete, could have an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
InputNegative impact: weakens
“The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 reinstated and doubled the Superfund tax on chemicals, including ammonia and nitric acid. These taxes run through December 31, 2031 and apply to the domestic production and import of ammonia and nitric acid products, except to the extent such products are used in fertilizer or animal feed, used as fuel or exported.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains out: this weakens Shipping and logistics, strengthens Energy efficiency, weakens Cement and building materials
Climate change and extreme weather
Macro
DriverMixed impact: mixed
“Our quarterly financial results can vary significantly from one year to the next due to weather-related shifts in planting and application schedules and purchasing patterns as well as import timing, import and distribution costs and logistical limitations, such as river conditions.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Agricultural planted areas and production can be affected by a number of factors, including weather patterns and field conditions, current and projected grain inventories and prices, crop disease and/or livestock disease, demand for agricultural products and governmental policies regarding production of or trade in agricultural products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Adverse weather conditions may decrease demand for our fertilizer products, increase the cost of natural gas or materially disrupt our operations. Adverse weather conditions could become more frequent and/or more severe as a result of climate change. Adverse weather conditions, which may be impacted by climate change, have in the past and may in the future have various negative impacts on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. Weather conditions that delay or disrupt field work during the planting, growing, harvesting or application periods may cause agricultural customers to use different forms of nitrogen fertilizer, which may adversely affect demand for the forms that we sell or may impede farmers from applying our fertilizers until the following application period, resulting in lower seasonal demand for our products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Adverse weather conditions during or following harvest may delay or eliminate opportunities to apply fertilizer in the fall. Weather can also have an adverse effect on crop yields, which could lower the income of growers and impair their ability to purchase fertilizer from our customers. Adverse weather conditions could also impact transportation of fertilizer, which could disrupt our ability to deliver our products to customers on a timely basis. Our quarterly financial results can vary significantly from one year to the next due to weather-related shifts in fertilizer applications, planting schedules and purchasing patterns.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Weather conditions or, in certain cases, weather forecasts, can also disrupt our operations and can affect the price of natural gas, the principal raw material used to make our nitrogen products. Colder and/or longer than normal winters and warmer than normal summers increase the demand for natural gas for residential and industrial use and for power generation, which can increase the cost and/or decrease the availability of natural gas. In addition, adverse weather events, such as extreme cold temperatures, storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, or floods, not only can cause loss of power or other impacts to our facilities or damage to or delays in logistics capabilities disrupting our operations, but also can impact the supply of natural gas and utilities and cause prices to rise.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“For example, our Donaldsonville and Waggaman complexes, and our under development Blue Point complex, are located in an area of the United States that experiences extreme weather events, including a relatively high level of hurricane or high wind activity, and several of our other complexes are also located in areas that experience extreme weather events. Extreme weather events, including temperature extremes, depending on their severity and location, have the potential not only to damage our facilities and disrupt our operations, but also to affect adversely the shipping and distribution of our products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains out: this weakens Agriculture and food production
Shipping and logistics
End markets
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“New growth opportunities include power generation and marine shipping, which are hard-to-abate industries for which low-carbon ammonia offers a potential path to significantly lower carbon footprints as it does not contain or emit carbon when combusted.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“In addition, we rely on railroad, barge, truck, vessel and pipeline companies to coordinate and deliver finished products to our distribution system and to ship finished products to our customers. We also lease rail cars in order to ship finished products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“These transportation operations, equipment and services are subject to various hazards and other sources of disruption, including adverse operating conditions on the inland waterway system or on the seas with respect to oceangoing vessels, adverse weather conditions, system failures, unscheduled downtime, labor difficulties or shortages, shutdowns, delays, accidents such as spills and derailments, vessel groundings and other accidents and operating hazards. The inability of our third-party providers to develop or operate CO2 pipelines and sequestration wells would impact our ability to generate tax credits and recognize revenue for low-carbon ammonia sales.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Additionally, due to the aging infrastructure of certain rail lines, bridges, roadways, pipelines, river locks, and equipment that our third-party service providers utilize, we may experience delays in both the receipt of raw materials or the shipment of finished product while repairs, maintenance or replacement activities are conducted.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Also, certain third-party service providers, such as railroads, have from time to time experienced service delays or shutdowns due to capacity constraints in their systems, operational and maintenance difficulties, blockades, organized labor strikes, weather or safety-related embargoes and delays, and other events, which could impact the shipping of our products and cause disruption in our operations and supply chain.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“If shipping of our products is delayed or we are unable to obtain raw materials as a result of these transportation companies’ failure to operate properly, if new and more stringent regulatory requirements were implemented affecting transportation operations or equipment, or if there were significant increases in the cost of these services or equipment, our revenues and cost of operations could be adversely affected. In addition, increases in our transportation costs, or changes in such costs relative to transportation costs incurred by our competitors, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains in: Carbon tax and ETS prices weakens, Global trade volumes strengthens, Fuel strengthens
Geopolitical uncertainty
Macro
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“There is also significant competition from products sourced from other regions of the world, including some with lower natural gas or other feedstock costs, which may include the benefit of government subsidies. Because ammonia, urea and UAN are widely-traded fertilizer products and there are limited barriers to entry, we experience competition from foreign-sourced products continuously.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Producers of nitrogen-based fertilizers located in the Middle East, Trinidad, Africa and Russia have been major exporters to North America in recent years.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Like other companies with major industrial facilities, we may be targets of terrorist activities. Generally, our plants and facilities store significant quantities of materials that can be dangerous if mishandled. Any damage to infrastructure facilities, such as electric generation, transmission and distribution facilities, or injury to employees who could be direct targets or indirect casualties of an act of terrorism, may affect our operations.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“International acquisitions, partnerships, joint ventures, investments or business combinations and other international expansions of our business involve additional risks and uncertainties, including the impact of tariffs on the import of industrial goods and the export of nitrogen products, exchange controls or other restrictions, nationalization of properties by foreign governments and difficulties and costs of complying with a wide variety of complex laws, treaties and regulations.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains out: this strengthens Defence budgets, strengthens Energy security, strengthens Tariffs and trade policy, weakens Global trade volumes, strengthens Sea freight and freight rates, weakens Reconstruction of Ukraine
Sea freight and freight rates
Raw materials and inputs
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“Nitrogen Product Distribution The safe, efficient and economical distribution of nitrogen products is critical for successful operations. Our production facilities have access to multiple transportation modes by which we ship products to terminals, warehouses and customers.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“In addition, we rely on railroad, barge, truck, vessel and pipeline companies to coordinate and deliver finished products to our distribution system and to ship finished products to our customers. We also lease rail cars in order to ship finished products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“These transportation operations, equipment and services are subject to various hazards and other sources of disruption, including adverse operating conditions on the inland waterway system or on the seas with respect to oceangoing vessels, adverse weather conditions, system failures, unscheduled downtime, labor difficulties or shortages, shutdowns, delays, accidents such as spills and derailments, vessel groundings and other accidents and operating hazards. The inability of our third-party providers to develop or operate CO2 pipelines and sequestration wells would impact our ability to generate tax credits and recognize revenue for low-carbon ammonia sales.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“If shipping of our products is delayed or we are unable to obtain raw materials as a result of these transportation companies’ failure to operate properly, if new and more stringent regulatory requirements were implemented affecting transportation operations or equipment, or if there were significant increases in the cost of these services or equipment, our revenues and cost of operations could be adversely affected. In addition, increases in our transportation costs, or changes in such costs relative to transportation costs incurred by our competitors, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains in: Geopolitical uncertainty strengthens
Tariffs and trade policy
Macro
DriverMixed impact: mixed
“Global competition for nitrogen products is also influenced by other factors, including currency exchange rates, including the relative value of the U.S. dollar and its impact on the cost of importing nitrogen products into the United States, foreign agricultural policies, the existence of, or changes in, import or foreign currency exchange barriers in certain foreign jurisdictions and the laws and policies of the regions in which we operate, including the imposition of new duties, tariffs or quotas, that affect foreign trade and investment. For example, the imposition of duties, tariffs or quotas in a region, such as the European Union’s imposition of additional and increasing tariffs on nitrogen fertilizers from Russia that began in July 2025, can directly impact product pricing in that region, which can lead to changes in global trade flows and impact the global supply and demand balance and pricing.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Changes to tariffs on imports into the United States, retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, and potential renegotiation of trade deals may also impact prices or trade flows. Any such duties, tariffs and quotas can lead to uncertainty in the global marketplace and impact the supply and demand balance in many regions, which could adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Our international business operations are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including difficulties and costs associated with complying with a wide variety of complex laws, treaties and regulations; unexpected or conflicting changes in regulatory environments; currency fluctuations; tax rates that may exceed those in the United States; earnings that may be subject to withholding requirements; and changes in global trade policy, including the imposition of tariffs, embargoes, exchange controls or other restrictions. Changes in global trade policies can lead to the imposition of new taxes, levies, duties, tariffs or quotas affecting agricultural commodities, fertilizer or industrial products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“These can alter or impact costs, trade flows, demand for our products, access to raw materials, capital equipment, and other supplies, and regional supply and demand balances for our products. Changes to tariffs on imports into the United States, retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, and potential renegotiation of trade deals may impact our existing operations or our planned strategic ventures and could adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains in: Geopolitical uncertainty strengthens
Chains out: this weakens Global trade volumes
Interest rates
Macro
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“As of December 31, 2025, we had approximately $3.25 billion of total funded indebtedness, consisting solely of unsecured senior notes with varying maturity dates between 2034 and 2044, or approximately 29% of our total capitalization (total debt plus total equity), and an additional $750 million of unsecured senior borrowing availability (reflecting no outstanding borrowings and no outstanding letters of credit) for general corporate purposes under our revolving credit agreement. Our debt service obligations will impact our earnings and cash flow as long as the indebtedness is outstanding.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Our ability to obtain any financing, whether through the issuance of new debt securities or otherwise, and the terms of any such financing are dependent on, among other things, our financial condition, financial market conditions within our industry and generally, interest rate fluctuations, credit ratings and numerous other factors, including factors beyond our control. Consequently, in the event that we need to access the credit markets, including to refinance our debt, there can be no assurance that we will be able to obtain financing on acceptable terms or within an acceptable timeframe, if at all.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“If we finance acquisitions, partnerships, joint ventures, business combination transactions or other major investments by issuing equity or convertible or other debt securities or loans, our existing stockholders may be diluted or we could face constraints under the terms of, and as a result of the repayment and debt-service obligations under, the additional indebtedness.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains in: Public debt and fiscal policy strengthens, Inflation strengthens
Chains out: this weakens Construction, weakens Real estate, weakens Wind power, weakens Housing market, weakens Office and commercial property, weakens Residential rental, weakens Residential construction
Pandemics and outbreaks
Macro
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Our operations are subject to hazards inherent in the manufacture, transportation, storage and distribution of chemical products, including ammonia, which is highly toxic and can be corrosive, and ammonium nitrate, which is explosive. These hazards include: explosions; fires; extreme weather and natural disasters; train derailments, collisions, vessel groundings and other transportation and maritime incidents; leaks and ruptures involving storage tanks, pipelines and rail cars; spills, discharges and releases of toxic or hazardous substances or gases; deliberate sabotage and terrorist incidents; mechanical failures; unscheduled plant downtime; labor difficulties and other risks.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“As a producer of nitrogen products working with hazardous substances, our business faces risks of spills, discharges or other releases of those substances into the environment. Certain environmental laws, including CERCLA, impose joint and several liability, without regard to fault, for cleanup costs on persons who have disposed of or released hazardous substances into the environment or who own or operate property where hazardous substances have been released or disposed of by other parties.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains out: this weakens Aviation and travel, strengthens Vaccines (travel health and preparedness)
USD vs DKK/EUR
Macro
DriverMixed impact: mixed
“Global competition for nitrogen products is also influenced by other factors, including currency exchange rates, including the relative value of the U.S. dollar and its impact on the cost of importing nitrogen products into the United States, foreign agricultural policies, the existence of, or changes in, import or foreign currency exchange barriers in certain foreign jurisdictions and the laws and policies of the regions in which we operate, including the imposition of new duties, tariffs or quotas, that affect foreign trade and investment. For example, the imposition of duties, tariffs or quotas in a region, such as the European Union’s imposition of additional and increasing tariffs on nitrogen fertilizers from Russia that began in July 2025, can directly impact product pricing in that region, which can lead to changes in global trade flows and impact the global supply and demand balance and pricing.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains out: this mixed effect United States
Air freight
Raw materials and inputs
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“Nitrogen Product Distribution The safe, efficient and economical distribution of nitrogen products is critical for successful operations. Our production facilities have access to multiple transportation modes by which we ship products to terminals, warehouses and customers.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Business cycle and GDP growth
Macro
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“Conditions in the United States, Europe, India, Brazil, China and other countries and regions of global significance in agricultural production significantly impact our operating results.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains out: this strengthens Global trade volumes, strengthens Construction
Consumer preference shifts
End markets
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Developments in crop technology, such as nitrogen fixation, the conversion of atmospheric nitrogen into compounds that plants can assimilate, or nitrogen-efficient varieties, or developments in alternatives to traditional animal feed or alternative proteins, could also reduce the use of nitrogen fertilizers and adversely affect the demand for our products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains out: this mixed effect Beer and beverages
Cybersecurity (products and services)
Technology
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“To date, we are not aware of any significant impact on our operations or financial results from such attempts; however, unauthorized access or other types of cyberattacks could disrupt our business operations, result in the loss of assets, and have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations. Measures we implement in an effort to protect, detect, respond to, and minimize or prevent these risks may not be successful, and we may fail to detect or remediate system inadequacies, inadequate controls or procedures, operating failures, unauthorized access, service interruptions or failures, security breaches, malicious intrusions, theft, exfiltration, ransomware, cyberattacks, or other compromises of our systems.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains in: Cyber attacks and IT security risk strengthens
Chains out: this strengthens Digitalisation
Electric vehicles and EV batteries
End markets
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Lower gasoline prices and fewer aggregate miles, driven by increased automobile fuel efficiency and the expansion of electric vehicle use, may put pressure on ethanol prices that could result in reduced profitability and lower production for the ethanol industry. This could have an adverse effect on corn-based ethanol production, planted corn acreage and fertilizer demand.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Electricity
Raw materials and inputs
InputNegative impact: weakens
“We use raw materials, primarily natural gas, and utilities, such as electricity, in the manufacture of our nitrogen products. We purchase raw materials and utilities from third party suppliers.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains in: Data centres strengthens, Electrification strengthens
Chains out: this strengthens Power grid expansion
ESG and sustainability reporting
Regulation
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“In addition to regulations concerning the emission of GHGs, many jurisdictions have implemented or are considering regulations requiring the disclosure of certain climate and other sustainability information, including related to companies’ efforts to reduce GHG emissions, impacts on the environment and risks associated with climate change, as well as regulations concerning environmental claims (such as the UK Green Claims Code and EU Empowering Consumers Directive 2024/825), breaches of which may result in significant financial penalties. Such requirements could inform future regulatory or enforcement action or influence demand for our products in a manner that could negatively impact us.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Global trade volumes
Macro
DriverPositive impact: strengthens
“Conditions in the United States, Europe, India, Brazil, China and other countries and regions of global significance in agricultural production significantly impact our operating results.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains in: Tariffs and trade policy weakens, Geopolitical uncertainty weakens, Business cycle and GDP growth strengthens
Chains out: this strengthens Shipping and logistics
Inflation
Macro
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Tax laws or rates, including tax credits relating to decarbonization projects, in the various jurisdictions in which we operate may be subject to significant change. Our future effective tax rate could also be affected by changes in our mix of earnings from jurisdictions with differing statutory tax rates and tax systems, changes in valuation of deferred tax assets and liabilities or changes in tax laws or their interpretation.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains out: this weakens Consumer spending, strengthens Interest rates
Inventories
Macro
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“If seasonal demand is less than we expect, we may be left with excess inventory that would need to be stored (in which case our results of operations would be negatively affected by any related increased storage costs) or liquidated (in which case the selling price could be below our production, procurement and storage costs). The risks associated with excess inventory and product shortages are exacerbated by the volatility of nitrogen fertilizer prices, the constraints of our storage capacity, and the relatively brief periods during which farmers can apply nitrogen fertilizers. If prices for our products rapidly decrease, we may be required to write-down the value of our inventory, adversely affecting our operating results.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Labour and wages
Raw materials and inputs
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Also, certain third-party service providers, such as railroads, have from time to time experienced service delays or shutdowns due to capacity constraints in their systems, operational and maintenance difficulties, blockades, organized labor strikes, weather or safety-related embargoes and delays, and other events, which could impact the shipping of our products and cause disruption in our operations and supply chain.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Subcontractors and haulage capacity
Raw materials and inputs
InputNegative impact: weakens
“Further, our major capital projects depend on the availability and performance of engineering firms, construction firms, equipment and material suppliers, transportation providers and other vendors necessary to design and implement those projects on a timely basis and on acceptable terms. Our major capital projects are subject to a number of risks, any of which could prevent us from completing such projects in a timely or economic manner or at all, including, cost overruns, non-performance of third parties, slowdowns or other delays in contemplated construction timelines, modularization of certain components, the inability to obtain necessary permits or other permitting matters, adverse weather, defects in materials and workmanship, labor and raw material shortages, transportation constraints, changes to international trade-related policy, engineering and construction change orders, errors in design, construction or start-up, and other unforeseen difficulties.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
United States
Geography
Geography
“Our value chain consists of manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, an extensive storage, transportation and distribution network in North America, and logistics capabilities enabling a global reach.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Geography
“We employed approximately 2,900 employees as of December 31, 2025, of which 80% were located in the United States, 14% in Canada, and 6% in the United Kingdom.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Geography
“Most of our nitrogen manufacturing facilities are located in the United States and Canada. As a result, North American natural gas comprises a significant portion of the total production cost of our products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Geography
“We are reliant on a limited number of key facilities. Our nitrogen manufacturing facilities are located at nine separate nitrogen complexes, the largest of which is the Donaldsonville complex, which represented approximately 40% of our ammonia production capacity as of December 31, 2025. The suspension of operations at any of these complexes could adversely affect our ability to produce our products and fulfill our commitments and could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Chains in: USD vs DKK/EUR mixed effect
Nordics
Geography
Geography
“Our value chain consists of manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, an extensive storage, transportation and distribution network in North America, and logistics capabilities enabling a global reach.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Geography
“We employed approximately 2,900 employees as of December 31, 2025, of which 80% were located in the United States, 14% in Canada, and 6% in the United Kingdom.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Geography
“Most of our nitrogen manufacturing facilities are located in the United States and Canada. As a result, North American natural gas comprises a significant portion of the total production cost of our products.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Denmark
Geography
Geography
“Our value chain consists of manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, an extensive storage, transportation and distribution network in North America, and logistics capabilities enabling a global reach.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Geography
“We employed approximately 2,900 employees as of December 31, 2025, of which 80% were located in the United States, 14% in Canada, and 6% in the United Kingdom.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Automation and robotics
Technology
DriverNegative impact: weakens
“Widespread adoption of emerging application technologies or alternative farming techniques could disrupt traditional application practices, affecting the volume or types of fertilizer products used and timing of applications.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Europe
Geography
Geography
“Our value chain consists of manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, an extensive storage, transportation and distribution network in North America, and logistics capabilities enabling a global reach.”
Annual report 2025A · The company itself
Competitors mentioned in the report
No named competitors in the report.
Financial figures
| Revenue latest fiscal year | 7.08 bn USD |
| Revenue growth vs. the year before, same method | 19.3 % |
| EBITDA reported by the company | 3.2 bn USD |
| Net debt debt incl. leasing minus cash | 1.65 bn USD |
| Diluted EPS per share | 8.97 USD |
Source: 10-K (SEC) A. See the report
Criteria
| Profit | ✓ |
| Growing | ✓ |
| Healthy balance sheet | ✓ |
Only the criteria that can be computed from financial statements on this page. The remaining criteria (such as price and dividend) need a share price and are in the analysis.
Figures are in the report's currency (USD), not converted to DKK. Quotes are shown as the company's own words in English.